Tidak Semua Defisit Dibiayai dari Utang Luar Negeri

Josua Pardede

Kondisi perekonomian negara-negara di dunia kian ruwet akibat pandemi covid-19. Tidak terkecuali Indonesia juga menghadapi masalah yang serius karena pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melorot.

Salah satu masalah yang ramai diperbincangkan ialah beban utang pemerintah dan investasi. Apakah beban utang pemerintah di tengah pandemi covid-19 ini sudah berada di level mengkhwatirkan? Dan, bagaimana dengan prospek investasi asing di Indonesia?

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Wartawan jurnal-investigasi.com, Riana Septiyani, mewawancarai Ekonom Permata Bank, Josua Pardede, untuk mengupas tentang kondisi utang pemerintah Indonesia dan prospek investasi asing ke dalam negeri.

 

Untuk membiayai belanja negara, salah satu sumber pendanaan diperoleh dari utang luar negeri. Apakah pemerintah Indonesia mampu mendapatkan pinjaman dari luar negeri, sementara negara-negara kreditur di luar negeri saat ini juga sedang menghadapi kesulitan keuangan akibat pandemi covid-19?

Jadi, yang perlu saya jelaskan di sini bahwa kalau kita lihat dari sisi penyaluran untuk jaring pengaman sosial, itu kan memang pemerintah melakukan pelebaran defisit APBN. Sebelumnya, normalnya itu 3% terhadap PDB, tapi tahun ini bisa diperkirakan sekitar 6%-an. Nah, ini tentu kan pasti bertanya-tanya sumber pembiayaannya dari mana. Dan saya perlu jelaskan di sini bahwa tidak sepenuhnya semuanya itu diperoleh dari utang luar negeri dan karena kalau kita lihat pun dari komposisi utang kita, utang yang dalam denominasi rupiah, itu sebenarnya jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan valas ataupun utang luar negeri.

Jadi, yang saya perlu jelaskan di sini adalah tidak semata-mata karena ada dampak covid ini, defisit tadi melebar, menutup defisit itu dengan utang luar negeri. Jadi, kita pun karena tadi korelasinya dengan yang tadi saya katakan bahwa peringkat utang kita itu meningkat oleh esensi Fitch dan Moodys ya. Nah, pada saat kita menerbitkan obligasi, itu sebenarnya ongkosnya jauh lebih murah saat ini, khususnya yang tadi kita lihat adalah obligasi ataupun surat berharga negara dalam denominasi rupiah, dalam currency rupiah, sehingga saya mengatakan di sini tidak semuanya dibiayai oleh utang luar negeri.

Boleh saya katakan juga bahwa kalau kita melihat statistik utang luar negeri dari Bank Indonesia, itu pertumbuhan yang cepat. Itu adalah perusahaan-perusahaan BUMN, swasta, kaitannya dengan swasta. Jadi, tidak semata-mata karena pemerintah yang menarik utang luar negeri. Jadi saya pikir dan kalau kita lihat juga dari sisi rasio utang secara keseluruhan, kita ngomongin utang keseluruhan berarti itu yang rupiah dan valas, rasio utang kita terhadap PDB itu seluruhnya diperkirakan sekitar 35%-40% terhadap PDB. Sebenarnya ini masih relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan ambang batasnya, 60% terhadap PDB dari Undang-Undang Keuangan Negara.

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Kalau kita bandingkan dengan negara-negara di kawasan, rasio utang kita pun sebenarnya ini jauh lebih kecil di mana, misalkan, Malaysia dan negara-negara lainnya itu sudah rata-rata di atas kita semua yang mendekati 100% terhadap PDB utangnya.

Jadi, sebenarnya kalau dikatakan ada sisi untuk menutupi defisit, APBN, pemerintah tidak semua, tidak melulu mengandalkan utang luar negeri. Jadi, karena pemerintah pun juga saat ini, karena tadi yang mendominasi tuh justru yang penerbitan SBN ini, sehingga risiko dari nilai tukarnya semestinya lebih terukur. Kalau kita lihat juga berdasarkan jangka waktu  portofolionya utang pemerintah kita, itu utang yang jangka pendeknya sedikit sekali, berbeda dengan kondisi pada 98. Pada 98, itu kan utang luar negeri jangka pendeknya sangat tinggi sekali. Jadi, pada saat rupiah kita dari Rp14.000 menembus Rp16.000, nah kita mengalami krisis moneter yang cukup signifikan pada saat itu.

Nah, tapi sekarang ini porsi dari utang luar negeri yang jangka pendek ini relatif sangat kecil sekali. Artinya, kalau ada jatuh tempo pun, pemerintah ini juga bisa melakukan pembayarannya karena kita lihat juga cadangan devisa Bank Indonesia ini cukup tinggi dan ini meningkat terus sepanjang sejarah. Artinya dari si pembayar utang pun ini bisa ter-cover oleh cadangan devisa.

Ini over all tadi, untuk menutup defisit, tidak semata-semata semuanya didapatkan dari utang luar negeri karena pemerintah menerbitkan SBN. Itu yang paling diprioritaskan, mungkin sekitar 80%-an, 20%-nya itu yang valas, Tapi valasnya pun bukan berarti untuk yang tadi, yang penyaluran bantuan sosial, karena kan lebih didasarkan juga pada misalkan kebutuhan yang pembiayaan dolar, untuk bangun infrastruktur dan lain sebagainya, jadi bukan karena defisit untuk membiayai jaring pengaman sosial sehingga harus menarik utang luar negeri. Jadi, itu sih saya pikir yang harus diluruskan.

Jadi, kalaupun meminjam dari utang luar negeri, pasti masih bisa terbayar karena utang jangka pendek ini rendah. Nah, jadi karena defisit prioritasnya itu langsung pinjam. Bukan. Karena pemerintah menerbitkan surat berharga negara itu, valutanya rupiah, denominasinya rupiah. Jadi, tidak ada risiko nilai tukar di situ. Nah, kalau misalkan ada pembiayaan ataupun pembangunan, misalkan infrastruktur, yang mungkin kita harus dalam dolar, nah itu baru. Nah, tapi kalau untuk kebutuhan tadi, untuk jaring pengaman sosial, saya pikir sih buat apa kita menarik utang luar negeri.

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Jadi, itu yang salah kaprah selama ini karena tidak semua yang defisit tarik utang luar negeri karena pemerintah tentunya akan mengoptimalkan penerbitan dari obligasi pemerintah kita sendiri, yang denominasi rupiah, yang risikonya jauh lebih kecil, yang dari sisi cost-nya pun jauh lebih kecil daripada kita menarik utang luar negeri.

Salah satu cara untuk memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah dengan cara meningkatkan investasi. Langkah-langkah apa saja yang sudah dilakukan pemerintah Indonesia untuk meningkatkan investasi tersebut? Dan apakah langkah-langkah pemerintah tersebut sudah tepat?

Salah satunya ini direalisasikan dengan Omnibus Law Cipta Kerja. Nah, Omnibus Law Cipta Kerja ini kan sebenarnya salah satu yang saya katakan, mungkin investor itu masih menghadapi hambatan-hambatan dalam proses perizinan. Banyak peraturan yang tumpang-tindih antarkementerian-lembaga, antarpemerintah daerah-pemerintah pusat ya, sehingga itu harus di-streamline. Artinya, harus dirombak ya, disederhanakan peraturan-peraturan itu, disinkronisasikan, dan itu semuanya terangkum dalam Omnibus Law Cipta Kerja.

Jadi, artinya yang dilakukan itu pun sebenarnya kan membuat tadi, investor ini lebih menarik lagi masuk ke dalam negeri, ke Indonesia. Karena kan sebelumnya kalau kita lihat juga dua tahun terakhir ini, isunya perang dagang ya, Amerika dengan Cina. Nah, tapi ironinya adalah relokasi dari Cina itu enggak ada yang masuk ke Indonesia, tapi masuk ke Vietnam.

Makanya dilakukan terobosan-terobosan kebijakan. Peraturan ini bagaimana caranya supaya di-compass jadi satu payung hukum yang lebih ramah terhadap investor sehingga investor pun akhirnya jauh lebih akan lebih tertarik untuk masuk ke investasi di dalam negeri.

Dan juga mungkin adalah diarahkan kepada yang padat karya. Artinya, kan kalau diarahkan ke yang padat modal, tentunya tidak bisa menciptakan lapangan kerja, sedangkan kalau kita lihat hitungan-hitungannya, potensi pengangguran karena covid ini juga cukup tinggi, meningkat.

Makanya, pemerintah melakukan tadi, reformasi struktural dengan mengajukan Omnibus Law Cipta Kerja supaya investor masuknya ke industri manufaktur. Makanya juga, kebijakan terkait tenaga kerja direlaksasi sehingga kalau tidak direlaksasi, ya tadi ujung-ujungnya investor ini akan masuk ke padat modal, sehingga dampaknya kepada konsumsi masyarakat yang tadinya mau kita dorong lagi itu jadinya belum terjawab.

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Makanya dibuatlah reformasi ke hampir lebih dari 70 undang-undang. Direvisi dan ini di-compass, disinkronisasikan, disederhanakan, penyederhanaan, sehingga investor ini akan lebih optimistis lagi untuk masuk investasi di Indonesia. Saya pikir sudah tepat sekali langkah tersebut saat ini.

Selain dari reformasi struktural dari Omnibus Law, masih ada lagi langkah-langkah yang diambil pemerintah untuk meningkatkan investasi dalam negeri, yaitu sebelumnya pemerintah juga sudah melakukan berbagai insentif pajak. Insentif pajak ini kan juga dari sisi fiskalnya sudah dilakukan. Dulu kan ada paket kebijakan 1 hingga 16 dan memang belum berjalan optimal karena tadi, masalah birokrasi.

Jadi, makanya yang di-address pemerintah saat ini adalah bagaimana supaya melakukan debirokratisasi. Artinya, birokrasi yang berbelit-belit ini bisa dipangkas dengan lebih signifikan sehingga prosesnya ini tidak berbelit-belit buat investor.

Jadi, intinya sih di situ bahwa kebijakan insentif fiskalnya juga sudah cukup banyak, suku bunga saat ini juga sudah relatif rendah, Bank Indonesia sudah menurunkan suku bunganya, nilai tukar stabil, lalu kita juga mungkin kebijakan. Tentu kan pemerintah 5 tahun sebelumnya, ya Jokowi jilid 1, itu kan pembangunan infrastruktur untuk menekan logistic cost yang 5 tahun ke depan ini fokusnya adalah peningkatan sumber daya manusia.

Jadi, dengan kondisi itulah, saya pikir hal-hal yang lebih struktural ini yang sebenarnya kita harapkan bisa menarik investasi lebih banyak lagi masuk ke Indonesia. (J2)

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