Kredit Perbankan Diprediksi Bisa Tumbuh Positif di 2021

Andry Asmoro

Di masa pandemi covid 19, industri perbankan dihadapkan pada kondisi sulit. Salah satunya ialah dalam hal penyaluran kredit.

Penyaluran kredit harus dilakukan ekstra hati-hati dengan memilah debitur-debitur yang masih potensial di masa pandemi ini. Pasalnya, jika salah membuat keputusan, bisa mendongkrak rasio kredit bermasalah yang selama pandemi telah membubung.

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Bagaimana kondisi terkini penyaluran kredit oleh industri perbankan nasional? Pada artikel kedua ini, wartawan jurnal-investigasi.com, Riana Septiyani, mewawancarai Chief Economist Bank Mandiri, Andry Asmoro, untuk mengulasnya.

 

Sejak pandemi berlangsung, apakah terjadi perubahan signifikan pada portofolio kredit perbankan secara nasional dan portofolio kredit Bank Mandiri? Mohon dijelaskan.

Begini, pertumbuhan kredit memang turun. Kalau secara industri, mungkin maksimal 1,5% pertumbuhan kreditnya. Bahkan, kalau kita lihat data terakhir pertumbuhan kredit, year on year itu 1%, 1,04%. Year to date-nya bahkan minus, -1,69%. Jadi, masih minus nih.

Jadi, artinya memang challenge-nya adalah kredit masih akan tetap rendah di 2020. Dan mungkin 2021 itu pun cuma maksimal minus single digit. Jadi, mungkin maksimal 1%.

Di Bank Mandiri juga berlaku seperti ini?Iya.

Dengan kondisi ketidakpastian saat ini karena belum ditemukannya obat yang pas untuk virus korona, bagaimana kinerja sektor perbankan hingga akhir 2020? Apakah sektor perbankan bisa rebound di 2021? Mohon dijelaskan.

Saya rasa tidak saja sektor perbankan. Kan bisa kelihatan di masa sekarang masih sangat baik. Kondisi likuiditas masih sangat terjaga. Tapi kalau dilihat, LDR (loan to deposit ratio/rasio kredit) perbankan aja turun di bawah 90 sekarang, 90%. Artinya, liquidity relatif flush tahun ini dan tahun depan. Jadi, enggak ada issue sebenarnya, apalagi dari bank-bank besar ya.

Nah, terus yang kedua, NPL masih mampu terjaga karena perbankan nasional ini relatif prudent. Ini yang memang membedakan antara kondisi krisis 98 dengan kondisi sekarang. Dengan peran regulator, OJK, Bank Indonesia, perbankan nasional sekarang jauh lebih prudent. Kalaupun terjadi peningkatan NPL, itu lebih karena memang pada dampak dari covid-19, bukan karena bank-bank tersebut tidak fident dalam penyaluran kreditnya.

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Itu yang kedua, yaitu  dari sisi kualitas asetnya. Yang ketiga, dari prospek bisnis, kami memang meyakini bahwa 2020 adalah tahun bagaimana kita bertahan dari dampak pandemi. Kemudian 2021, bayangan saya, perbankan sudah bisa mustinya kreditnya tumbuh positif.

Jadi, apakah menurut Bapak sektor perbankan ini bisa rebound di 2021, Pak?

Bisa, cuma memang kita belum melihat report yang sangat tinggi seperti misalnya kondisi sebelum covid karena kondisi ekonominya pun masih relatif terbatas. Kalau misalnya covid vaksinnya belum ketemu atau distribusinya belum merata, otomatis perekonomiannya juga belum full.

Jadi, lagi-lagi karena pandemi ini ya, Pak. Jadi, mungkin kalau sektornya menurun, karena terdampak juga ya, Pak.

Betul. (J2)

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